Say you sold 100 scarves last winter. A logical stock plan will tell you to buy 100 scarves this year. But how would you actually know whether that’ll hold true this year just like last year?

You don't. Because this year’s collection probably has to be (and probably should be) different to last year’s. What styles, what colours, what prices are available for you to buy? Let me tell you as a buyer for an indie shop, some years the choice from all the dozens of possible suppliers is terrible, some years it’s excellent. And there’s nothing you can do about it.

And anyway, what will the weather be like this winter? It might be remarkably mild, or it might be absolutely arctic, that could make the difference between 10 scarves and 200 scarves.

And there’s another aspect too. Of course, customers have an almost limitless choice of where to shop, you know only too well how much competiton is out there. But there’s another competition you might not have spotted yet. It’s happening right on your shop floor - every item in your shop is in competition - in competition with all the other things people might buy in your shop. So, the sales on scarves for example, might be relative to how good your home fragrance offer is this season. Because if you’ve got a candle that absolutely everyone loves, they might just grab that at first sniff and not even bother browsing the scarves - of course she’s already got loads of both, every woman has, but at least a candle is consumable.

So, no. I don’t just calculate how many scarves or bags or candles or cards or bracelets or bath bombs I sold last season and buy the same again. Because the factor that matters is desirability. A customer rarely walks into your shop with their Christmas list and thinks “I’m going to buy 10 scarves - 1 for everyone I buy for”. No, of course not. They actually think “I’m hoping to buy some gifts and every one is going to be the nicest, most accessible thing I think the recipients are going to like the most out of all the things that are in this shop AND all the other things I could buy anywhere else, conveniently”. That’s a pretty huge number of variables to take into account!

I’ll give you a different example. Remember a few years ago those bags came out - they were a bit like the original bum bags from the 80s/90s with a long strap to wear diagonally across your body. Banana bags I think they were called. I mean, sure they were fashionable, sure they were “inspired” by some fancy designer, sure plenty of people were wearing them… But, the one thing I knew was that they weren’t a gift. For starters, you couldn’t display them, they looked like crap unless they actually were on a body, and I can’t have 10 mannequins in my shop to display 10 handbags, can you? Secondly, they weren’t familiar, you didn’t automatically know if the person you were gifting this to was going to use a bag like this. Either you hadn’t seen her with one, so maybe she hated them, or you had seen her with one so she’s got one already. And, the other thing that put people off was that it was the sort of bag that only went with the right outfit - it demanded a particular style and if you weren’t wearing that, again, it looked like crap. It certainly didn’t suit everyone - ample bosom? Oh dear no. And was it practical? Didn’t all your stuff sit lumpily on your belly like a dodgy kangaroo pouch? Didn’t it crease your clothes so you looked like a crinkled idiot when you took it off? And when you took it off, where did you put it? It had no flat base to sit on, so it’d be falling all over the floor tripping everyone up and if you didn’t zip it up properly, all your stuff would be all over the floor too. So, I knew as soon as I saw the trend emerge, this is going to be a shit year for bag sales.

Of course, we stocked a few and we sold a few, but I was comparing it to the bag that had come immediately before. The commercial queen, the camera bag. This bag was the pinnacle of all impulse handbags. No one could dislike it. It was super fashionable but also accessible. It was practical. Shoulder or cross body, push it round the back if you want it out of the way, pull it round the front if you want it easily accessible. Always hands-free, for dog walking, shopping, child-wrangling or just living a normal life! It came in so many colours and there were so many strap options (including plain). So, it could go with any outfit. It was for all ages, builds and looks. It was a classic bag, but you could make it fun, or not. Can you tell, I still miss the trend to this day?! So in those seasons, we sold 20 times probably 30 times the volume of bags compared to the weird bum/banana seasons.

I hark back to those bygone days. And they are bygone because like virtually everything, its moment passed. Suddenly, everyone was sick of the camera bag. The market had been saturated to absolute sogginess. You couldn’t get rid of one of them even if you slashed prices in a sale. Because every dog has his day right? And nothing lasts forever. But the thing was, it fell out of favour pretty damn quick. A stock plan based on the previous winter’s sales of camera bags would have seen me sunk.

Now, I’m not saying that stock plans aren't useful for huge retailers. Firstly, over multiple stores, maybe over multiple countries, you will probably sell a broadly similar number of bags maybe. But the big boys have a major advantage over us indies, their margins. They push prices down way way lower than we could ever dream of, so if they sell through maybe not so great, they can liquidate with less of an impact. And the most important thing is, they have to forecast. They can’t order that volume of bags and except delivery within a week. But we don't order that kind of volume. We only need a tiny percentage, and we can get it, from a multitude of suppliers, pretty much within a week. And, if one supplier runs out, we’ll just try another, if they run out too, we can buy a different product entirely. We can fill that space - tweak our displays, adjust accordingly, we can do that today, this minute, no delay. No need to ask anyone. No need to get approval. Just respond, in real time, right now.

And what’s more, a stock plan is BORING. So very boring. Now, I know how useful data is, I use my shop’s data every single day. But I use it to inspire my creativity, to help me generate new ideas, to make my shop more exciting and more fresh for the customer. Not to tie me down to a cash-hungry commitment that could drag me under for the rest of the season. So, stock plan for indies? I call absolute bullshit on you every single time.

And that’s what ex-corporates don't understand. We’re not like them, and we shouldn’t try to be. Stock plans are the only way a corporate giant can function. The only way they can secure the volume they need to feed the insatiable monster they’re trying to satisfy. But us little folks? We can respond in real time to what’s happening on our shop floors. We can secure stock in moments from any number of suppliers and get it delivered in a few days. And that responsiveness is an independent’s super power. That’s cash flow. That’s margin maximisation. That’s profitability. That’s surfing the waves of indie retail, moving with the tide and the winds. Not ploughing through in your enormous, heavy, painfully slow, un-manoeuvrable container ship of a corporate conglomerate.

And if you ask me, this is the life. This charmingly unpredictable voyage, this endlessly changing adventure of small shopkeeping. Just keep your crap corporate stock plan out of my sight thanks, I’m enjoying the freedom of the open sea.